- The 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement has been postponed to October 24 due to the ongoing federal government shutdown.
- Experts forecast a modest benefit increase in the range of 2.7% to 2.8%, significantly lower than the historic inflation-driven hikes of recent years.
- While the announcement is delayed, the Social Security Administration has confirmed that benefit payments for January will not be impacted.
- Any potential increase in benefits could be substantially eroded by a projected 11.6% surge in Medicare Part B premiums for 2026.
Millions Await News as Shutdown Postpones COLA Reveal
A federal government shutdown has forced a delay in a critical announcement for approximately 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiaries. The Social Security Administration (SSA) has confirmed that the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), originally anticipated on October 15, will now be revealed on October 24.
The delay stems from the shutdown’s impact on the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which must first release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data—the key inflation metric used to calculate the annual adjustment. “The Social Security Administration (SSA) will use this release to generate and announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 24 as well,” an agency spokesperson confirmed to CNBC.
Despite the administrative delay, the spokesperson provided crucial reassurance, stating that the benefit increase will go into effect for January payments “without any delay due to the current government lapse in appropriation.”
What to Expect from the 2026 COLA
A Modest Increase on the Horizon
Based on the most recent inflation data, experts are projecting a COLA between 2.7% and 2.8%. Such an adjustment would raise the average retirement benefit by about $54 per month. While modest, this increase is slightly higher than the 2.5% COLA beneficiaries received in 2025 and surpasses the 20-year average of 2.6%, according to analysis from The Senior Citizens League.
A Far Cry from Recent Highs
However, the anticipated 2026 adjustment pales in comparison to the substantial increases seen in the aftermath of the pandemic-era inflation spike. Beneficiaries saw a historic 8.7% COLA in 2023 and a 5.9% increase in 2022, both of which were the largest adjustments in decades at the time.
The Hidden Catch: Rising Medicare Premiums
For millions of retirees, the net gain from any COLA is determined by another crucial, and still unannounced, figure: Medicare Part B premiums. These premiums are typically deducted directly from Social Security checks, meaning a significant premium hike can consume much of the COLA increase.
Projections from Medicare trustees paint a concerning picture, suggesting the standard monthly Part B premium could jump by 11.6% in 2026. This would translate to a $21.50 monthly increase, pushing the premium from $185 to $206.50. Higher-income individuals may face even steeper costs due to income-related monthly adjustment amounts (IRMAAs).
With both the final COLA and the new Medicare premium amounts still pending, millions of seniors are left in a state of financial uncertainty as they wait for the government to resume its normal operations.